Veto Power

Let me start stating “i consider the Irani regimen isn´t an example of social enlightment nor a progressive society”, the actions taken by Tehran since the Theological Revolution came to power has been alienating to anyone who interacts with them, isolating the country even more, in a desperate measure of the establishment to stay in power.

However, we must analize the facts very carefully before endorsing any action that would have greater consequences in the Middle East. First of all, we, the international community, must demand the recognition of Palestine as a fully UN member, if any future resolution against Iran is brought to the UN Security Council.

The veto threat from the US against the creation of the palestine state must face a similar action when a likely resolution for more severe sanctions against Iran are discussed in the Security Council. Balance in the region will only be achieved when both parties received equally the hardship of the international pressure.

In the unfortunate side of the equation, we have France and Britain, too aligned to the US international agenda to risk having any friction with the military mighty helping them to reassert both countries as global military powers. In the other side, we have the so called “rogue states”, Russia and China, making the difference in a potential result.

Russia and China, along with emerging super powers Brazil and India have enough PR muscle to shift international public opinion into a more favorable outcome in regards of Palestine, despite intense lobby from money and influence powerful jewish groups. Let´s not forget either in the other issue underlined by this controversy, the arms traffic in the southern US border.

NRA or interest groups related with the weapon industry; i do not know who else to blame for lobbying so effectively in Washington to mantain their hands out of a very sensitive problem with consequences in the whole Latin American area. Let's hope for the best for a fully independent Palestine.

Spanish Double Standard

Last week, one of the two candidates with real chances to win the government presidency in Spain, stated “Europe and Latin America are my priorities in foreign policy”. Now, the bitter dispute for the control of Repsol, Spain's biggest energy company, it has raised many doubts of reciprocity in the treatment of corporate investment across the pond.

During the nineties, many spanish corporations took advantage of the privatization of many state companies throughout Latin American, some of the acquisitions resulted to be not very advantegeous. That would be the case of flag airlines in many countries in the region, where Iberia bought them out only to take them out of business few years later.

Telecommunications and banking were other areas where companies from Spain received special treatment, resulting in very lucrative businesses. Worldwide household names like Santander and Telefónica got their break after expanding operations in the Americas, turning them into a cash cows overnight.

It is unfortunate however the lack of reciprocity shown in Spain, in regards of investment made by corporations these time coming from the opposite direction, cashing from a prolongued commodity based boom. Even respected newspapers such as  El País of Spain, put pressure in the Sacyr-Pemex (mexican state-run oil company) alliance to control Repsol.

Among the arguments were, the undervalued stock price Pemex paid, presumably in exchange of drilling technology and distribution bargains. After all, low stock prices offer the right opportunity to do business anywhere in the world, although what transpires seems to be related to a bias of being opportunity savvy.

My Fat Greek Wedding

In the latest event of this Greek drama, U.S. Treasure Secretary, Tim Geithner met Euro Zone finance ministers in Poland to discuss monetary policy to get europeans off from the edge of what lately have been called the “Abysm”. The consequences of contagion have global economic powerhouses gathering forces to jump start the greek economy.

The greek economy? why? This small country with a messy marriage with the European Union policy makers, has battled one of the most extenuated fight against speculators in the aftermath of the financial crisis. A bit of corruption, foreign banks and the always infalible International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervention; provided a lethal mix.

At the core of the problem, we have the lack of leadership from europeans policy makers to come up with a solution to end this greek episode. However, there are at stakes a couple more things than greeks in this story, french and german banks have a greater exposure to greek bonds than any bank from any other country in the EU.

While Merkel and Sarkozy were trying to figure out, how to save their banks from the siege, and their advisors tried to gain some time against the inquisitive eyes of the speculators, many EU partners showed reluctance to extend their aid to an ever indulgent group of nations with long records of fiscal mismanagement.

In the meantime the markets started to grow anxious about the resiliance of the greek economy to recover, and the default became more inminent among investors and speculators. Their only way to recoup the losses was to place their eyes into another peripherical country with ill managed fiscal accounts. 

From that point on, the domino effect dragged Ireland and Portugal into economic dispair with Spain and Italy waiting to be next in the agenda from international financiers. The lost of competitiveness among some peripheral countries due to the appreciation of the euro, depleted their abilities to tax exporting industries as consumers were demanding less beause of uncertainty.

With the third and fourth EU's economies at stake, european regulators realized that was only a matter of time for Greece to default, with a hesitant IMF negotiations kept going as to contain unwanted damages to the comunitarian economy. A fiscal reform in Europe is at the top of the international pleas, along with a global intiative against speculators.

Through a magnifying glass, the greek marriage with the euro have left them with an unemploymet rate between 16% to 22%, a projected recession for the next two years (-5% in 2011 and -3,8% in 2012) and a very bleak future to access money in the markets to finance their expenses. Masses of greek youngs are packing to move out of their country seeking for a better future in this advantegous marriage.

In memoriam: 9/11

Living in Manhattan in late 90's was an accelerating experience that i will never forget, the technology bubble created overnight millionaires, making NYC a very expensive place to live. At the time, the rent for one bedroom apartment in the West Village went for 2,400 US$ a month, and the streets were filled with the latest cars ridden by the hottest creatures.

That was the picture of a young inmmigrant from Venezuela, bedazzled by the glitter and fast life of the “Big Apple” and trying to make it happen in a tough environment for newcomers. Memories keep coming back of myself walking down Avenue of the Americas and having the latter WTC twin towers putting a smile on my face.

Besides, no date in New York was worth be called romantic without a sunrise snuggle on top of the Empire State building looking southward and contemplating the skyline of Lower Manhattan with the twin towers crowning the view. My best date ever!!!

By the end of summer of 2001 while living in Boston i decided to spend labor day weekend in Fire Island, unfortunately my companion and i lost the evening boat with no other choice but going out in Manhattan. The following day was the last time i had the opportunity to see the WTC towers standing up, no knowing the dreadful days to come.

September 11th, after being woke up by a roommate on a day off, screaming histerically around the apartment “we've been invaded”, we sat in front of the TV paralized with no words coming out of us and running around to get more coffee. Consternation set the tone, by the falling of the first building we were all chills and the uncertainty reigned.

My neighborhood was full of inmigrants mostly from distant places from Cambodia to Cape Verde, there were few people wondering around on the streets, but the ones out were dusting things off from their basement. Next morning all the houses were displaying american flags as a sign of patriotism and outrage against the terrorist attack.

The following day i went to work, at the subway suspicious eyes were searching for objects were to put their hatred upon, i did not blame them perhaps i would have done the same back home, but this time was affecting me. My persecutory paranoia took over me with my apparent resemble with people from the middle east and people staring.

A week later i flew to San Antonio for a trainning, i went through the airports like everyone else, of course the random theory of selecting people gets broken with me, because i am always chosen when it comes with the portable metal detector. Since then i've never felt frighten of being racialy profiled again, at least for now.

I write this lines to celebrate the wonderful city of New York and to remember the iconic majesty that used to represent the twin towers for every person who lived in the city that never sleeps.

Mea Culpa

Common Knowledge tells you when a moment of crisis arises, the rich is the one who makes the most money, they are the ones holding inventories of any kind, any inflationary move would make them richer and when it comes to speculate, they have the resources and the information to make the most of it. In conclusion, big money never loses.

No wonder a group of millionaires in different countries from Italy to Germany, U.S.A to France; are coming forward with initiatives to raise taxes to the rich in order to “contribute” with fiscal deficit. It sounds morbid having to wait for them to offer the money instead of being already taxed by law.

Apparently, based in a Boston Consulting Group study, patrimonial taxes throughout OCDE are indeed very low with the U.S. at 12.1% in tax average per fiscal entry, France with 7,8%, Italy 4,3% and Germany only 2,3%. Considering the average European citizen is being tax 30% o more, with patrimonial assets represented by one house.

The irony of situation is the wide publized PR campaign starting with the Italian super rich led by Luca di Montezemolo vowing to buy Italian bonds if the pressure persists. How much are they willing to contribute “voluntarily”? Let´s speculate 10 to 20 billion dollars that would be around 1% in comparison with the 1, 2 trillion of Italy sovereign debt.

As for their German counterpart the story is similar, with expectation a bit higher as far as collection purposes with numbers around 100 billion dollars to relieve the public coffers. Then my next question it would be, for how long this initiative would prolong? Knowing that recovery is a long and painful process.

Underlying is the legislative failure from congress and similar institutions around the globe, for not being capable of demanding to the rich bigger contributions as they are the biggest beneficiaries of most governmental subsidies. No wonder the streets around the world are getting filled of discontent masses asking for better government.

The special spotlight is taken by President Obama, who in 2008 with both houses under democratic control could not produce efficient policies that would prevent republicans to block any agreement in raising the cap on fiscal spending; as a consequence of such poor strategy debt rating was downgraded, affecting the sum of money pay in interests to speculators.

In the same token European leaders have been waiting for private lenders to share the losses in debt related cases in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. However, the same altruistic spirit shown by some business leaders in Europe has not spoken up in paying for the mismanagement and corruption while assigning contracts to big business in peripheral countries.

The Nature of Public Policy

In my opinion, a modern approach in the design of public policy should start as an expression of our own reality, segmenting the natural audience consecuence of a micro vision rather than a broader one, in order to make an effective impact to better people lives. So, Why is it important the making of public policy? Having a plan to solve the problems we face as social beings.

Is goverment the only one responsible to make public policies? Public Policy covers the analysis of govermental decisions but not necessarily all made by the goverment.

Social issues tend to come first while working towards “courses of action” in meeting the aspirations of the people. However, those aspirations and their priority would change depending on how diverse the target audience is as a result of cultural, demographical and socio economic factors.

Issues such as: universal health care, inmigration, gender equallity, discrimination based on sexual orientation among others; seem to be first in mind of people rather than sustainable growth or energy security, for example. Not for being more important but for affecting the individuals more directly in regular basis and in their own macro view of the reality.

Are you regularly involved in public policy strategies? Constantly, it must be that way

When parents meet at school to discuss problems as well as creating norms and regulations to improve how the institution functions, they are in presence of “Public Policy”. The only way to change the course of action is by participating in the decision making process.

Before any regulatory measures have been implemented, it is important for the target audience to have an approach in place, that is, a proper strategy with its respective funding priorities, otherwise the survival of the inniciative would be at stakes.

I would leave you for now with an idea to brainstorm, some have agreed to put limits to the state in order not to intrude in people's personal life, i personally would agree, but most importantly it would be to put real limits to the corporations, to have them do their productive purpose only and to strip them out from any political involvement as well as reducing their size to avoid temptations about their agenda in changing your mind and the regulatory nature of goverment.

More Certain

For most people “uncertainty” is the word defining the current situation in the world, and in the forefront of this state of mind, the economy plays a central rol. Everyday headlines around the world hit us with words such as: collapse and crisis, along with phrases like stagnation of the economy or downgrade debt rating. However, there are billions of dollars being made by speculators, taking advantage of the corrections performed by financial regulators and central bankers in the aftermath of the real estate bubble worldwide.

It would be not only unfair but inaccurate blaming the problems of the greek economy to the failure of the real estate cycle, when there was a reckless behavior from the local political class in regard of watching the public spending and therefore the indebtness levels as well. Corruption undermined the ability of the institutions to regulate the flow of public money and to funtion itself, contributing to enlarge the monetary resources used in building a country more to the standards of the EU rather than in their own possibilities.

In Ireland the goverment bought out the entire financial system in form of sovereign debt, with a financial system in deep troubles due to quality of the mortgage loans. It was a matter of time for the credit rating agencies to downgrade the bank notes first and shortly after the goverment, and that way getting started with the bailing negotiations with the IMF and the ECB. By contrast with Iceland, the irish goverment did not allow the unhealthy banks to go bankrupt, instead it had the taxpayers absorbing the financial burden of  the bankers wrongdoing. 

Very uncertain looks the picture at Greece, Ireland and Portugal, whom by keeping up with the EU demands acquired enormous amount of debts and by joining the euro lost the competitiveness of their products, making very gloomy their road ahead for economic growth.

Who should pay for military intervention? That was a question my father recently asked me, in regard a conversation of the historical downgrade of the US debt and as well historical level of debt in relation with GDP. Usually the common citizen would blame the operations of the US military overseas, but make no mistakes, no operations starts at any part of the world without guarantees of expenses being reimburst by the loosing side. Lybia, Irak, Kuwait had to payback the military incursions in their territory to safeguard american interests, in respect to Afganistan, sharing the expenses with NATO to protect the supply of opiate products would do for now.

The consumers, corporations and irresponsible public spending are the ones to be blamed of the delicate state of the american economy. Many years of ever growing trade deficits financed by debt, presumibly to benefit the american consumer with cheap products and to preserve low inflation levels, a legacy of fear from the seventies double digit infaltion index. Corporations, for being bailed out mostly for their own wrongdoing and management to compete and survive,  and of course a goverment with deep pockets, always willing to print money following the break from the gold convertability scheme in 1971.

Let's hope to be certain about the beggining of a new economic cycle with corrections in place for a fresh start.

The usual suspect

Here i am, smoking a cigarrette after a pause of the tenth time watching “Eat, pray, love”, digesting all the emotions that bring moving from one place to another and the only word coming to my mind is “usual suspect”.

The usual suspect defined by my repetitive experience is that person who you focus all your anxieties and expectations with the bonus of knowing that any posible attachment it would unfructful due to the short time left before your departure. Is kind of selfish or maybe dishonest because even though you told them up front the adventure has a due date, you are the only one in the equation who enjoys the anticipation.

Many of the more torrid and remembered love affairs i have had were what i call usual suspects, make no mistake most of them has been the best prospect i could ever wish for, but timing was the excuse i always relied on.  In a way it feels like you need somebody to forfeit on your responsability to move on.

The hang over of having a usual suspect is bitter, full of guilt, after all keep in mind my catholic venezuelan up bringing. Although self inflicted it turns into a ghost that reminds you how foolish you are, sometimes i wonder if this situation suits perfectly to an abusive relationship taking in consideration the leverage from the other side to increase your remorse.

At the end the whole dynamic works for both parties, for the sake of having an intense romance with minimal colateral damages in the name of self preservation, a safe heaven to all gay men who rather have their walls up. To all of you, i dedicate this lines with the advice of letting yourselves turn back only to remember how joyful the journey was. It's about the journey not about the man.

A quote from the movie, James Franco is staring at Julia Roberts during the theater performance, and a voice in the background says “ ...i will give you all these and more, until i am so exhausted and deplited the only way i can recover is by becoming in touch waiting for someone else”.

The fugitive

After a week of the highly publicized death of Osama Bin Laden,  the intentions of Obama's communications team about the disappearance of most wanted terrorist of our days, still not clear to me.

Two decades later of 9/11, it was necessary to redeem the failure of two different American administrations in the advancement of international terrorism, thesis that justified the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 under the pretense of dismantling the international terrorist network called Al Qaeda, responsible for systematic attacks against the United States of America.

Mysterious conditions surrounding his supposed death makes many of us feel skeptical about whether or not the body in question was of Bin Laden or if instead it is a publicity stunt. The Bush administration resorted to this tactic as an argument for the second invasion of Iraq under the false premise that Saddam Hussein had in his possession weapons of mass destruction.

This web of lies has been costly and widely documented, even brought to the big screen in a couple of occasions, resulting in scandals that have ended the political careers of people like Tony Blair, who had a strong credibility both within the United Kingdom and internationally, when he decided to succumb to pressure from George W. Bush to enlist the support of American voters in clear view to his re-election in the middle of a war.

Now, Why not be skeptical to another potential promotional campaign from Washington?, Who gains from it?, What proof have Washington shown to the world public opinion of the death of Osama Bin Laden?, after all, Al Qaeda not only struck terror and death in the United States, but around the world.

Only time will tell us about the truth of the facts with respect to the fugitive, I doubt his death will reduce the impact of man beyond the name, however his cult will multiply exponentially. I would like to quote a few lines of Mazzetti and Shane published by the New York Times on May 5, 2011 "Many intelligence analysts and terrorism experts concluded that (Osama Bin Laden) had been relegated to an inspirational figure with a small role in Al Qaeda operations and future. "

The damage done to the American citizens in regard to their security, does not merit the benefict made by this administration in exchange for a percentage increase in the voters intention, ahead of an electoral year.