More Certain

For most people “uncertainty” is the word defining the current situation in the world, and in the forefront of this state of mind, the economy plays a central rol. Everyday headlines around the world hit us with words such as: collapse and crisis, along with phrases like stagnation of the economy or downgrade debt rating. However, there are billions of dollars being made by speculators, taking advantage of the corrections performed by financial regulators and central bankers in the aftermath of the real estate bubble worldwide.

It would be not only unfair but inaccurate blaming the problems of the greek economy to the failure of the real estate cycle, when there was a reckless behavior from the local political class in regard of watching the public spending and therefore the indebtness levels as well. Corruption undermined the ability of the institutions to regulate the flow of public money and to funtion itself, contributing to enlarge the monetary resources used in building a country more to the standards of the EU rather than in their own possibilities.

In Ireland the goverment bought out the entire financial system in form of sovereign debt, with a financial system in deep troubles due to quality of the mortgage loans. It was a matter of time for the credit rating agencies to downgrade the bank notes first and shortly after the goverment, and that way getting started with the bailing negotiations with the IMF and the ECB. By contrast with Iceland, the irish goverment did not allow the unhealthy banks to go bankrupt, instead it had the taxpayers absorbing the financial burden of  the bankers wrongdoing. 

Very uncertain looks the picture at Greece, Ireland and Portugal, whom by keeping up with the EU demands acquired enormous amount of debts and by joining the euro lost the competitiveness of their products, making very gloomy their road ahead for economic growth.

Who should pay for military intervention? That was a question my father recently asked me, in regard a conversation of the historical downgrade of the US debt and as well historical level of debt in relation with GDP. Usually the common citizen would blame the operations of the US military overseas, but make no mistakes, no operations starts at any part of the world without guarantees of expenses being reimburst by the loosing side. Lybia, Irak, Kuwait had to payback the military incursions in their territory to safeguard american interests, in respect to Afganistan, sharing the expenses with NATO to protect the supply of opiate products would do for now.

The consumers, corporations and irresponsible public spending are the ones to be blamed of the delicate state of the american economy. Many years of ever growing trade deficits financed by debt, presumibly to benefit the american consumer with cheap products and to preserve low inflation levels, a legacy of fear from the seventies double digit infaltion index. Corporations, for being bailed out mostly for their own wrongdoing and management to compete and survive,  and of course a goverment with deep pockets, always willing to print money following the break from the gold convertability scheme in 1971.

Let's hope to be certain about the beggining of a new economic cycle with corrections in place for a fresh start.